Earl Weaver Rules

Jamie Walker had to make a trip to the hospital today when he took a comebacker to the back of the head off of the bat of Nick Markakis.  He’s got a minor concussion and it’s unclear as to when he’ll be back.

The Orioles avoided arbitration with Erik Bedard when they signed him to a one year, $3.4 million deal deal.  He could make another $100k is he hits various innings pitched total so if he goes 200 innings, it’ll end up being a $3.5 million deal.

Bedard broke out in 2006 and won 15 games with 171 strikeouts.  There’s no doubt that heading into spring, he’s the number one guy and he should get the opening day start.  PECOTA has Bedard with a weighted mean average WHIP of 1.38 and a 4.19 ERA with a slightly lower 6.7 strikeout per nine innings rate.  They do have him with a 47% improve rate though so they expect him to probably be on the better end of those numbers then the lower.

Hayden Penn had a tough 2006 season.  His season was derailed by an appendectomy of all things and after a red start at Triple A, Penn came back from the surgery and struggled.  His 2006 line looks like something out of a video game (that you’d see from the opposition) but this is a guy who was a top prospect coming in 2006 so now we’ll get to see what he can really do now that he’s fully recovered.

Penn hopes to be in the rotation in 2007 and a good spring would go a long way toward solidifying his spot on the team.  If he doesn’t make the rotation, it’d be nice to see pick up some major league innings in long relief (a la Earl Weaver) then make his way into the starting rotation.  But this is why I wasn’t too crazy about the Steve Trachesel signing.  It means one more year of question marks for Penn.

I know, it’s not final yet until the physical goes down, but the Orioles are going to sign Steve Trachsel to a one year, $3.1 million deal to replace Kris Benson in the rotation.  Trachsel won 15 games last year but his numbers were hardly stellar.  He walked 78 and struck out only 79 in 164 2/3 innings.  His WHIP of 1.60 was nothing to write home about either.  He’s a soft throwing right hander who’s 36 and known for working very slowly during the game.

Then again, at this point, beggars can’t be choosers.  This is obviously a reaction to the Benson injury and Trachsel very well might have been the best guy left out there.

This hurts.  Kris Benson wasn’t anything special on the mound, but he was an innings eater who provided a veteran prescence in a rotation that’s filled with kids.  He tore his rotator cuff and it looks like he’s out for all of 2007.

So now the Orioles have another hole to fill, and it’s in the rotation.  Even his 75th percentile PECOTA projection wasn’t all that great so maybe this is for the better.  It’ll give a guy like Hayden Penn another trial by fire.  I also wonder how much the Orioles will get back in insurance money because of the injury.  Maybe ownership could put that money to good use on another starter.

The Orioles locked up Corey Patterson to a one year, $4.3 million deal yesterday and the team is not finished signing their arbitration eligible players.  I think this was a bit high, but even the Orioles end of the arbitration offer was $4 million so that would have been the ceiling.  Patterson had a solid season in a few ways after coming over from the Cubs in 2005.  He stole 45 bases but he’s not great at the top of the lineup because he had only a .314 OBP.  He’s a decent power/speed guy but I still think we should deal to a team that’s enamored with his stolen bases.

PECOTA sees a drop off but it’s probably because of that very poor 2005 season.  Still, I have a feeling Patterson isn’t going to be worth the $4.3 million we’re paying him but here’s to hoping.

It’s hard not to like Kevin Millar even though his on the field performance hasn’t quite been what Orioles fans would have hoped.  Buster Olney at ESPN.com recently had an online interview with Kevin Millar and it’s a solid read.  Good stuff and they talk about everything from from the Orioles offseason acquistions to his time playing in Boston.

Beyond the Box Score recently wrote up their 2007 team preview for the Orioles and while it’s always nice to see a more sabermetrically inclined anaylsis, the final prognosis is the same…..the Orioles aren’t going to be very good in 2007.  Great analysis though.

On the same website, he’s what they think about how prospects Adam Loewen and Dave Haehnel should do in 2007. 

The Orioles avoided arbitration with second baseman Brian Roberts when they locked him up to a one year, $4.2 million deal today.  Robert had a monster year in 2005 but an elbow injury slowed him down a bit.  Regardless, Roberts is one of the best second basemen in baseball so $4.2 million isn’t all that bad.

PECOTA doesn’t project Brian Roberts very well.  The weighted mean average they have is .264/.337/.392 but they have a projected 56% collapse rate.  I think he’ll be on the north end of .275, but time will tell.